¿Qué va a pasar con las elecciones en Estados Unidos?

WEBVTT

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I' m Roberto Pombo. Welcome
to my questions. An average rush program

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sponsored by KFAM, the U S
family compensation box approaches a new version of

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its presidential election between literally two old
acquaintances, Democrat and current President Joe Biden

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and Republican former President Donald Trump.
Joe Biden' s age will be an

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obstacle to his campaign. How it
will affect Trump' s guilt for thirty

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- four crimes for this program.
We spoke with former Colombian ambassador to the

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United States, Gabriel Silva, with
journalist and political analyst María Alejandra Villamizar,

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with historian and politician Juan Carlos Flores, with Silvia Otero, professor at the

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Faculty of International Political and Urban Studies
of the University of Rosario, and with

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former congressman Juan Manuel el Galán I
am Roberto pom And this is chapter ninety

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- four welcome. Since I remember, the United States has been one of

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the most powerful countries in the world, not to say the most or the

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only one. Millions of people migrate
there every year. Last year was a

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record year for emigrants. Only until
August, that country received more than two

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eight million immigrants. More than forty- six million of its inhabitants are resident

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migrants. This country is the leader
of the global agenda and few changes take

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place in the world without its approval. In fact, the History Office of

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that country' s State Department dates
back to the beginning of that hegemony in

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one thousand eight hundred and ninety-
eight, with the end of the war

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that gave Cuba its independence and gave
it to the United States, colonies like

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Puerto Rico, Filipines Iwan. Since
then, they have dominated politics, trade

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and, especially, world culture.
This is why most schools around the world

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teach English and not, for example, Russian or Japanese. And more importantly,

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your currency, even if it is
not the most valuable, is the

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standard of measurement of the other currencies
in the world. However, the United

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States and its inhabitants have long been
a sort of sense of decline. The

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concept of American climate or American decline
has become popular for a few decades.

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For example, in a thousand nine
hundred and ninety- one, in Harvard

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Disness El View, an article entitled
The United States was published in The Clive,

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which analyzed the state of the country. At that time it was facing

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unemployment figures, the competitiveness of its
companies vis-à- vis foreign companies

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was not the best and inequality was
increasing. Other industrialized countries had begun to

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counterbalance it and at that time began
to form themselves in the European Union,

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which so varied the exclusivity of the
American country as a lone power. According

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to an article in the New York
Times, economist and essayist John Repprie,

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over the past two decades, this
country has fallen into decline. At the

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turn of the millennium, the Western
world accounted for four fifths of world economic

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output, but today that share fell
to three fifths and continues to fall.

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And as Western countries struggle to restore
their dynamism. Developing countries now have the

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fastest growing economies in the world.
Through institutions like Briggs and Opeth, and

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encouraged by China, they are turning
their growing economic weight into political power.

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From this point of view, it
may seem that the United States is following

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the course of all empires, doomed
to decline and eventual fall. And there

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are figures that support the growth of
several problems in the United States. For

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example, according to a new research
by Asis Rossinger, associate professor of Biocomportative

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Health and Anthropology at the University of
Penstate, the number of children facing water

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and food insecurity simultaneously in the United
States doubled. To this we must add

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that, according to figures from the
armed violence archive organization, in only two

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thousand twenty- three in that country
there were more mass shootings than days in

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the year, that is, more
than six hundred more. Recently, Joseph

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Knight, an academic and former dean
of Harvard Government University, wrote an article

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for Time magazine in which he made
an analysis of the concept of American decline

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and considered it more of a type
of social anxiety. And it is that,

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for nay, the concept of declinism
speaks to us more about social psychology

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than geopolitics. But it also shows
how the idea of decline touches a sensitive

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nerve in American politics. This issue
is going to lead to many accusations and

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denials in this election year and is
that often anxiety over decline can lead to

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nationalist and protectionist policies that make more
than next year part of that decline,

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as Professor Night calls it, can
be seen reflected in political campaigns, as

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is the case with the current one
in the United States, for example,

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in the slogan of Maye America Ray
the Game. Or let' s make

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America big again in this presidential campaign
that confronts this country. Narratives are key.

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I see all this and really think
of America as a political and social

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decline. I asked the historian and
politician Juan Carlos Flores the question, and

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this answered me. The U S
was left without detailed global leaders. Those

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we met in various periods of their
history today are no longer seen, they

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are no longer said by Ower,
the Kennedys, or finally by those figures

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who knew how to rudder to the
United States. This election recalls what was

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happening in the former Soviet omium,
when a group of elders were in power

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already unable to understand what was happening
with the world, So it is clear

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that the United States has entered a
dangerous period of decline and, if it

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does not find leadership able to renew
the position of the country in the world,

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to build bridges within the country,
which remains the most powerful on the

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planet, not only will it be
faced with more and more serious problems in

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the United States, but we will
be faced with serious problems in the absence

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of the State leadership in the world. The inhabitants of the planet for many

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people. A sign of a decline
in the United States are the favorite candidates

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for the upcoming presidential election, current
President Joe Biden, aged eighty- one,

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and former President Donald Trump, aged
seventy- eight and convicted for justice.

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The latter is one of the major
developments in this year' s presidential

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election, which is that Donald Trump
is the first former President of the United

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States convicted of serious crimes. After
a New York jury found him guilty of

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the thirty- four counts in a
scheme to illegally influence the election of two

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thousand sixteen through a payment of money
to silence a porn actress who said they

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both had sex. The prosecution showed
the jury that Trump not only falsified or

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had commercial documents falsely recorded, but
that he did so with the intention of

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committing or covering up another crime related
to the violation of electoral laws, which

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elevated crimes to serious crimes. Trump
could potentially face imprisonment, although most of

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those sentenced for the first time in
non- violent cases are sentenced to parole

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and amults. The decision is ultimately
made by Judge Merchan, who is not

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obliged to imprison Tron, even if
he has been convicted. The thirty-

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four counts for which the former President
was found guilty are all considered serious class

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crimes e. In New York,
the lowest level of charges for serious crimes

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in the State carries a maximum penalty
of four years each. The judge is

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expected to impose a concurrent sentence for
Trump to serve all the time in prison

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simultaneously for a maximum of four years
if he follows that route. However,

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this does not prevent him from continuing
in his career to reach the White House

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again, and is that the Constitution
of that country puts very few legibility requirements

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for presidents to be at least thirty- five years old to be citizens born

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in the country, to have lived
in the United States for at least fourteen

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years. There are no criminal offences
based on the nature or criminal record.

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For now Trump is still free and
waiting for the judge to impose a penalty,

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which will happen on June 11.
But for a moment let' s

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explain that the judge' s sentence
is to go to the house and that

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he is still elected. President,
what would happen if Trump were sentenced to

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a year or less, would serve
his sentence in a city jail like Rikers

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Island and would probably be eligible for
parole after serving two- thirds of his

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sentence. Said Salan. If sentenced
to more than one year, the Department

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of Community Corrections and Supervision of the
State will determine which of its forty-

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four facilities will be sent to and
if, if so, it is unable

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to fulfil its constitutional duties for imprisonment, most of its cabinet and the Vice

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- President would be able to remove
him from office and transfer his authority to

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the Vice- President and, as
above, are unprecedented. There' s

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a question in the air how that' s going to affect your candidacy.

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It seems that not much and that
the voters have already decided their vote,

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but to import the legal consequences.
In the case of Trump, according to

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the results of a poll by NPR, PBS and Maris dos vercios, sixty

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- seven percent of the polled said
a guilty verdict would make no difference in

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their vote. Three quarters, seventy- six percent said the same thing about

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a verdict of innocence. Approximately one
in six voters. Seventeen percent said a

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guilty verdict would make them less likely
to vote for TRUMPA only eleven percent of

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independent voters or that they are not
affiliated with any party said a guilty verdict

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would be less likely to vote for
trump for Timuty James naftaliy researcher at Columbia

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University' s School of Public Affairs. This unprecedented fact is not encouraging.

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It is to be hoped that Trump
will use the Republican Party for the rest

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of the campaign to destroy the judicial
system that the majority if not all Republican

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candidates echo the candidate' s poisonous
views on the fairness of the rule of

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law, creating a national and local
policy of a toxicity that has rarely been

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seen. And although polls and several
political analysts claim that the guilty verdict will

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not affect their voters. For Landrigman, a distinguished history professor at American University.

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This is yet to be seen,
because Trump cannot win the presidency only

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with his base of followers, but
he needs to win over moderate undecided voters,

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who are more likely to react negatively
to the verdict. Beyond how his

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campaign affects being guilty of thirty-
four crimes, I wonder how it would

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affect the American political system to elect
a President convicted of serious crimes. Silvia

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Otero, professor at the Faculty of
International, Political and Urban Studies at the

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Universidad del Rosario, is passing the
restlessness on to her, and this is

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her analysis. Threats to the political
and electoral system in the United States come

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not only from the likely choice of
a person who has been convicted of serious

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crimes, but from the fact that
such a person is, in fact,

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a candidate with a high probability of
becoming such a candidate. In other words,

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we are talking about the existence of
a political system where there are very

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high levels of polarization, where memberships
and partisan aversions to choose the vote or

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respect for the basic and elementary rules
of democratic play constitute a more important reason.

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So, the fact that we are
at this point where a candidate of

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these characteristics can win, is already
materializing very serious threats to the stability of

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that political and electoral system, but
not everything in the figure of the horn.

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It is bad according to an analysis
of the political portal with the administration

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trumpulated an important role, but little
noticed, by pressuring Congress to promulgate the

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most radical reform of the vaguardias against
financial rights in any case, a measure

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aimed at stopping the flow of money
to terrorists, drug traffickers and other evildoers.

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He also attempted for the first time
an audit throughout the Department of Defense.

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An army of 1, 000 external
accountants and 150 staff members of the

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Office of the Inspector General of the
Department of Defense were deployed to some 600

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locations that collected forty- zero pages
of financial documents. On the other side

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is Joe Byden, the current president
and candidate for the Democratic Party for a

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second term of the presidency these three
and a half years of government that he

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has been in contrast. Bloomberg magazine
did an analysis in March to evaluate his

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three years in office and I want
to highlight this data. The first is

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about a sensitive issue for the United
States, as is migration. Baden'

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s immigration reform is failing. The
border encounters of irregular migrants in the ports

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of entry is close to a record
level in. In December of two thousand

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twenty- three were almost two hundred
and fifty thousand The more than six three

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million total meetings in the South fruit
market since Widen took office have resulted in

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the entry into the country of more
than two four million immigrants. However,

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in other respects, his Government had
had good figures According to Bloomberg' s

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analysis, access to affordable health care
was the greatest achievement of dancing. The

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number of insecure Americans reached a historic
minimum of seven two percent in the second

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quarter of two thousand twenty- three, while the number of people enrolled in

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an Obamacker plan for two thousand twenty- four increased to twenty- one three

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million. The economy added 14 8
million jobs during the first three years of

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its term, more than any President
in U S history during the same period.

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We could say that, if we
look at it from the cold point

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of view of the data, he
has been a successful President. However,

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what concerns many and has been the
subject of criticism by their adversaries is their

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age and mental health, and recent
images of President Biyder have been seen,

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evidently disoriented in several public appearances in
which he seems confused or lost. In

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February of this year, a report
by Special Prosecutor Robert Hard was published on

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the handling of classified documents by President
Joe Biden, who concluded that he presented

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himself as an old man with a
bad memory, who was unable to remember

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key dates, even when he served
as Vice President or the year his son

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died. Prime Minister Hard' s
report described the memory of the eighty-

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one- year- old President as
blurred, flawed, poor and with significant

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limitations. This has also become a
public concern. In March, the ap

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press agency conducted a poll that showed
that about six out of ten sixty-

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three percent say they don' t
have much confidence in Byden' s mental

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ability to be effectively serving as President. Trump, though, is not well

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off either. In that same survey. A similar proportion, though slightly smaller,

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fifty- seven percent say Trump lacks
the memory and acuity for the job.

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In another more recent poll conducted by
CBS, it was concluded that 23

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percent of respondents believe that neither Byden
nor Trump have the mental or cognitive health

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to serve as presidents. Many doubts
have been raised on this issue, and

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one of them is why no other
candidacies are being promoted in the Democratic Coast

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Party Panagopolus, head of the Department
of Political Science at North Eastern University.

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It' s too risky for a
game. Challenging its own leader has the

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potential to cause much harm, especially
when it comes to a challenge within the

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party to a President- in-
Office who, impressively, should carry the

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flag of that party. Although after
his questionable performance in last Thursday' s

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debate, many people within the Democratic
Party itself raised alarms and began to question

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whether he should remain their party'
s candidate. Some even went so far

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as to say whether it would be
desirable for him to remain In these conditions,

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the President of the Republic can become
a problem if he becomes President at

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the age of eighty- one.
This he told me in former Colombian ambassador

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to the United States, Gabriel Silva, of being elected to President Baden,

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would be the oldest, most mature
president in the history of the United States.

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Without a doubt, that is a
challenge because, independently of their current

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condition, that my opinion, is
much better than what opponents say, because

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in any case, at eighty-
one long years, there are cognitive losses

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that most of them can compensate for
with experience and knowledge. But in any

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case, doubt about who will be
ruling will surround that Government if President Biding

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is elected and conspiracies will begin to
try to influence those who believe he is

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ruling. It is not very different
from what, unfortunately, we live with

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President Barco, who accused himself of
ruling Germán Montoya, and the President was

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indeed totally of his mind and exercised
his power as Head of States. There

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is no doubt in the case of
President Biden, because the enemies will also

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be calibrating what advantages and disadvantages he
has for them. The fact that this

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happens is that Russia, China and
other countries that are in vilus of the

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United States. Anyway, it'
s going to be a major weakness for

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the United States that circumstance, unfortunately, now good news for Joe Biden.

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On the one hand, a study
of the New York Times and a hundred

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collech Paul of almost two zero voters
found that more voters were away from Trump

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than those who approached him. Byden
is one point above trumpe in the weekly

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Morring Consul poll for the second week
in a row, after having been behind

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Trump for a month. The latest
poll shows that Trump' s advantage has

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diminished as a result of the verdict
and the poll by Pib Es Marys,

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published the second week of June,
showed that Trump has lost six points among

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independent voters, compared to the May
poll of groups conducted before his conviction,

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while Byden has won eight points and
now beat Trump by two points among the

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independents. And even though Byden and
Trump lead all the polls by narrow margins.

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There are other candidates in the partyer. That' s right. One

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hundred and seventy- four years ago, the United States did not elect a

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President who was neither a Democrat nor
a Republican. In one thousand eight hundred

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and fifty, when Millard Filmore was
elected as the 13th President of the United

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States, belonging to the Wick Party, which ceased to exist that year.

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For now there are at least three
other independent candidates who hope to compete with

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the two major parties. One of
the most vocal independent candidates is Robert Kennedy

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Jr, son of murdered politician Bobby
Kennedy and nephew of former President John Fisherra

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Kennedy up to two thousand twenty-
three belonged to the Democratic Party, but

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resigned to form his own WI People
movement. Or we, the Kennedy people,

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are known for several positions that we
might call scandalous or questionable, but

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which, paradoxically, have managed to
catch the attention of the Republican Party trompist,

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for example, their belief that Putin
acts in good faith in the conflict

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with Ukraine, that the BH crises
were manufactured so that the céutic weapons sold

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more anti- AIDS drugs, that
vaccines cause autism, that the five G

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technology is used for surveillance, or
that the radio frequency signals of wi FI

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can cause cancer, that there are
chemicals in the water that turn children into

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trans gender and more recently claimed that
Chinese and Jews were immune to covid nineteen,

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and although it is difficult to beat
the two presidential candidates. Gennedy has

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gained popularity, especially among Latino voters. I' m Robert of Cardy Jr.

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And they present everything as an independent
candidate for the presidency of the United

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States. In the United States of
my youth, our country, to have

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thus concluded its promise to be an
Ehemplar Boton nation has it. An electoral

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defense organization recently published the results of
a poll of two zero Latino voters in

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the states of Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, and Pensylvania,

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highlighting that Kennedy is getting better results
two among Latinos and other voters than any

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other third party candidate. In decades
and several surveys conducted in April and May

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by the New York Times, Cinna
College and Filadelphia. In Qir they revealed

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that Kennedy has 14 percent support among
Latino voters in the most contested states.

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On the other hand, there is
progressive academic Colonel West, a former professor

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of philosophy at Harvard, one of
the leading and leading socialist activists in the

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United States. Together with Bernis Sanders, he supported Obama in his first administration,

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but quickly became a critic of various
measures by the former President, such

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as his support for Wall Street or
the use of drones in the war.

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Although his candidacy was believed to be
with the Green Party, in January he

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announced the formation of the Justice forrol
party or Justice for all. And finally

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there is also doctor Gillstein, a
veteran American leftist politician who announced her candidacy

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for the Green Party. Stein is
a recognized environmentalist and has already been a

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candidate in two thousand two and two
thousand sixteen, always with the same party.

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She was a candidate for Massachusetts State
Governorship in two thousand two and two

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thousand ten and until recently she was
also a presidential campaign director for Cornel West.

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The Democrats blame Hillary Clinton for not
winning the presidential election of two thousand

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and sixteen because the one- and- a- half million votes that achieved

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a zero coma six percent of the
votes, although insufficient to govern, were

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decisive in the balance tilt in favor
of Trump. I looked for former congressman

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Juan Manuel Galán to ask him the
alternative candidates will have the possibility of governing

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again in the United States. Let' s hear what he told me.

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In the United States, alternative candidates
face great challenges because of the bipartisan system

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that favors the Republican and Democratic parties. A peculiar electoral system and campaign financing

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laws make it difficult for independent candidates
or third parties to reach the presidency.

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However, history shows that it is
not impossible. In Colombia, for example,

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the two- party system broke down
in a thousand nine hundred and ninety,

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when the new liberalism emerged as an
important force and forced the Liberal Party

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to adopt its candidate. This change
was catalysed by unprecedented violence in the 1980s

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and the assassinations that led to the
promulgation of the Constitution of ninety- one

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In the United States, the growing
political polarization is a serious problem, which

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is dividing the country and paralyzing it, a polarization that could paradoxically be the

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catalyst necessary for an alternative candidate to
emerge. The political, social, economic

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and migration crisis can generate great disillusionment
with traditional parties and anti- democratic options.

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In any case, the candidate would
have to be charismatic, disciplined and,

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above all, provide a viable solution
to the problems of society, in

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particular migration. Trump' s political
figure as President and candidate has influenced the

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world and especially in Latin America,
to guide candidacies and right- wing figures

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such as Miley in Argentina, Bolsonaro, Brazil and Colombia, several figures such

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as María Fernanda Cabala or Paloma Valencia. In the case of Baiden, his

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figure has empowered more politicians from centres. A new Trump triumph could translate into

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a new geopolitical configuration in which Colombia, under President Petro' s government,

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takes a radical position and aligns itself
with Russia and China. Colombia has sought

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to maintain a respectful diplomatic relationship with
the two parties and the United States is

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one of the country' s main
allies. So far, the relationship between

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President Biden and President Petro has been
cordial and have met, but in the

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face of a hypothetical victory of Donald
Trump, a man with coughing thoughts and

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political beliefs different from that of President
Petru I cannot help but wonder if the

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diplomatic relationship would change. As I
don' t know what to think of

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asking political journalist Mara Alejandra Villamizar what
we could expect from diplomatic relations between Colombia

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and the United States if Donel Trump
won the presidency. This answered me between

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the two thousand and seventeen of the
two thousand and twenty- one. Donald

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Trump broke the outlines of U S
politics and with his arrival he realized that

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fact, which was the transfer of
the fiction of the realities to a reality

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that previously seemed unthinkable. His arrival
coincided at that time with the presidency of

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Ivan Duque, who also seemed unthinkable. But this coincidence gave Colombia a new

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alignment. We were in the process
of building peace and when Donald Trump arrived,

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there came the times of the winds
of hostility, not only with those

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peace- building exercises, but,
for example, with Venezuela and the regime

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of ripeness to Colombia, due to
social needs and geographical location, the problem

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of migration, the drug problem,
which remains our great heel of aquiles,

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our war, because it will certainly
return that discourse of supporting more the fight

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against security terrorists And maybe Donald Trump
wants Colombia to be ally, which has

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never ceased to be, but a
slightly more watered ally surely will not be

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anything different from what has happened with
Joe Biden. But Colombia is in the

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petro era, and that is certainly
going to mean adjusting the belts will harden

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the speech, return those Republican referents, and then we will talk again about

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the need to save the homeland that
for many today is the common place to

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do politics. We will have common
enemies and, therefore, Colombia will again

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be in a hinged situation, neither
here nor there. Even if there'

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s a sense of American addictive.
What happens in November' s presidential dedictions

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in the United States will undoubtedly affect
Colombia and the world' s influence in

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much of the world' s wars
and conflicts, in the economy, in

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its trade battle with China, in
relations with countries like Venezuela and in the

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fight against drugs, shows that it
remains a power. I am Roberto Pombo

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and this was chapter ninety- four
of my questions we see in the next

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chapter from this moment on. This
chapter of my questions is available on all

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podcast platforms. This episode was made
possible by Kafan. Family compensation box.

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Dirección Roberto Pombo, Producción General,
juan Abel Gutiérrez, editorial advisor, Daniel

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00:28:38.279 --> 00:28:45.000
San Pedro Espina, scripts Juannabel Gutiérrez
and Johnny Rodríguez. Field production Marcela Salazar

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00:28:45.160 --> 00:28:48.279
and Lucía Beltrán audio postproduction Carlos Bernard