¿Qué va a pasar con las elecciones en Estados Unidos?

0:06 I' m Roberto Pombo. Welcome to my questions. An average rush program sponsored by KFAM, the U S family compensation box approaches a new version of its presidential election between literally two old acquaintances, Democrat and current President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump. Joe Biden' s age will be an obstacle to his campaign. How it will affect Trump' s guilt for thirty - four crimes for this program. We spoke with former Colombian ambassador to the United States, Gabriel Silva, with journalist and political analyst María Alejandra Villamizar, with historian and politician Juan Carlos Flores, with Silvia Otero, professor at the Faculty of International Political and Urban Studies of the University of Rosario, and with former congressman Juan Manuel el Galán I am Roberto pom And this is chapter ninety - four welcome. Since I remember, the United States has been one of the most powerful countries in the world, not to say the most or the only one. Millions of people migrate there every year. Last year was a record year for emigrants. Only until August, that country received more than two eight million immigrants. More than forty- six million of its inhabitants are resident migrants. This country is the leader of the global agenda and few changes take place in the world without its approval. In fact, the History Office of

1:40 that country' s State Department dates back to the beginning of that hegemony in one thousand eight hundred and ninety- eight, with the end of the war that gave Cuba its independence and gave it to the United States, colonies like Puerto Rico, Filipines Iwan. Since then, they have dominated politics, trade and, especially, world culture. This is why most schools around the world teach English and not, for example, Russian or Japanese. And more importantly, your currency, even if it is not the most valuable, is the standard of measurement of the other currencies in the world. However, the United States and its inhabitants have long been a sort of sense of decline. The concept of American climate or American decline has become popular for a few decades.

2:27 For example, in a thousand nine hundred and ninety- one, in Harvard Disness El View, an article entitled The United States was published in The Clive, which analyzed the state of the country. At that time it was facing unemployment figures, the competitiveness of its companies vis-à- vis foreign companies was not the best and inequality was increasing. Other industrialized countries had begun to counterbalance it and at that time began to form themselves in the European Union, which so varied the exclusivity of the American country as a lone power. According to an article in the New York Times, economist and essayist John Repprie, over the past two decades, this country has fallen into decline. At the turn of the millennium, the Western world accounted for four fifths of world economic output, but today that share fell to three fifths and continues to fall.

3:21 And as Western countries struggle to restore their dynamism. Developing countries now have the fastest growing economies in the world. Through institutions like Briggs and Opeth, and encouraged by China, they are turning their growing economic weight into political power. From this point of view, it may seem that the United States is following the course of all empires, doomed to decline and eventual fall. And there are figures that support the growth of several problems in the United States. For example, according to a new research by Asis Rossinger, associate professor of Biocomportative Health and Anthropology at the University of Penstate, the number of children facing water and food insecurity simultaneously in the United States doubled. To this we must add that, according to figures from the armed violence archive organization, in only two thousand twenty- three in that country there were more mass shootings than days in the year, that is, more than six hundred more. Recently, Joseph Knight, an academic and former dean of Harvard Government University, wrote an article for Time magazine in which he made an analysis of the concept of American decline and considered it more of a type of social anxiety. And it is that, for nay, the concept of declinism speaks to us more about social psychology than geopolitics. But it also shows how the idea of decline touches a sensitive nerve in American politics. This issue is going to lead to many accusations and

4:57 denials in this election year and is that often anxiety over decline can lead to nationalist and protectionist policies that make more than next year part of that decline, as Professor Night calls it, can be seen reflected in political campaigns, as is the case with the current one in the United States, for example, in the slogan of Maye America Ray the Game. Or let' s make America big again in this presidential campaign that confronts this country. Narratives are key. I see all this and really think of America as a political and social decline. I asked the historian and politician Juan Carlos Flores the question, and this answered me. The U S was left without detailed global leaders. Those we met in various periods of their history today are no longer seen, they are no longer said by Ower, the Kennedys, or finally by those figures who knew how to rudder to the United States. This election recalls what was happening in the former Soviet omium, when a group of elders were in power already unable to understand what was happening with the world, So it is clear that the United States has entered a dangerous period of decline and, if it does not find leadership able to renew the position of the country in the world, to build bridges within the country, which remains the most powerful on the

6:27 planet, not only will it be faced with more and more serious problems in the United States, but we will be faced with serious problems in the absence of the State leadership in the world. The inhabitants of the planet for many people. A sign of a decline in the United States are the favorite candidates for the upcoming presidential election, current President Joe Biden, aged eighty- one, and former President Donald Trump, aged seventy- eight and convicted for justice. The latter is one of the major developments in this year' s presidential election, which is that Donald Trump is the first former President of the United States convicted of serious crimes. After a New York jury found him guilty of the thirty- four counts in a scheme to illegally influence the election of two thousand sixteen through a payment of money to silence a porn actress who said they both had sex. The prosecution showed the jury that Trump not only falsified or had commercial documents falsely recorded, but that he did so with the intention of committing or covering up another crime related to the violation of electoral laws, which elevated crimes to serious crimes. Trump could potentially face imprisonment, although most of those sentenced for the first time in non- violent cases are sentenced to parole and amults. The decision is ultimately made by Judge Merchan, who is not

7:57 obliged to imprison Tron, even if he has been convicted. The thirty- four counts for which the former President was found guilty are all considered serious class crimes e. In New York, the lowest level of charges for serious crimes in the State carries a maximum penalty of four years each. The judge is expected to impose a concurrent sentence for Trump to serve all the time in prison simultaneously for a maximum of four years if he follows that route. However, this does not prevent him from continuing in his career to reach the White House again, and is that the Constitution of that country puts very few legibility requirements for presidents to be at least thirty- five years old to be citizens born in the country, to have lived in the United States for at least fourteen years. There are no criminal offences based on the nature or criminal record.

8:48 For now Trump is still free and waiting for the judge to impose a penalty, which will happen on June 11. But for a moment let' s explain that the judge' s sentence is to go to the house and that he is still elected. President, what would happen if Trump were sentenced to a year or less, would serve his sentence in a city jail like Rikers Island and would probably be eligible for parole after serving two- thirds of his sentence. Said Salan. If sentenced to more than one year, the Department of Community Corrections and Supervision of the State will determine which of its forty- four facilities will be sent to and if, if so, it is unable to fulfil its constitutional duties for imprisonment, most of its cabinet and the Vice - President would be able to remove him from office and transfer his authority to the Vice- President and, as above, are unprecedented. There' s a question in the air how that' s going to affect your candidacy.

9:46 It seems that not much and that the voters have already decided their vote, but to import the legal consequences. In the case of Trump, according to the results of a poll by NPR, PBS and Maris dos vercios, sixty - seven percent of the polled said a guilty verdict would make no difference in their vote. Three quarters, seventy- six percent said the same thing about a verdict of innocence. Approximately one in six voters. Seventeen percent said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for TRUMPA only eleven percent of independent voters or that they are not affiliated with any party said a guilty verdict would be less likely to vote for trump for Timuty James naftaliy researcher at Columbia University' s School of Public Affairs. This unprecedented fact is not encouraging.

10:41 It is to be hoped that Trump will use the Republican Party for the rest of the campaign to destroy the judicial system that the majority if not all Republican candidates echo the candidate' s poisonous views on the fairness of the rule of law, creating a national and local policy of a toxicity that has rarely been seen. And although polls and several political analysts claim that the guilty verdict will not affect their voters. For Landrigman, a distinguished history professor at American University. This is yet to be seen, because Trump cannot win the presidency only with his base of followers, but he needs to win over moderate undecided voters, who are more likely to react negatively to the verdict. Beyond how his campaign affects being guilty of thirty- four crimes, I wonder how it would affect the American political system to elect a President convicted of serious crimes. Silvia Otero, professor at the Faculty of International, Political and Urban Studies at the Universidad del Rosario, is passing the restlessness on to her, and this is her analysis. Threats to the political and electoral system in the United States come not only from the likely choice of a person who has been convicted of serious crimes, but from the fact that such a person is, in fact, a candidate with a high probability of becoming such a candidate. In other words, we are talking about the existence of a political system where there are very

12:13 high levels of polarization, where memberships and partisan aversions to choose the vote or respect for the basic and elementary rules of democratic play constitute a more important reason. So, the fact that we are at this point where a candidate of these characteristics can win, is already materializing very serious threats to the stability of that political and electoral system, but not everything in the figure of the horn. It is bad according to an analysis of the political portal with the administration trumpulated an important role, but little noticed, by pressuring Congress to promulgate the most radical reform of the vaguardias against financial rights in any case, a measure aimed at stopping the flow of money to terrorists, drug traffickers and other evildoers.

13:05 He also attempted for the first time an audit throughout the Department of Defense. An army of 1, 000 external accountants and 150 staff members of the Office of the Inspector General of the Department of Defense were deployed to some 600 locations that collected forty- zero pages of financial documents. On the other side is Joe Byden, the current president and candidate for the Democratic Party for a second term of the presidency these three and a half years of government that he has been in contrast. Bloomberg magazine did an analysis in March to evaluate his three years in office and I want to highlight this data. The first is about a sensitive issue for the United States, as is migration. Baden' s immigration reform is failing. The border encounters of irregular migrants in the ports of entry is close to a record level in. In December of two thousand twenty- three were almost two hundred and fifty thousand The more than six three million total meetings in the South fruit market since Widen took office have resulted in the entry into the country of more than two four million immigrants. However, in other respects, his Government had had good figures According to Bloomberg' s analysis, access to affordable health care was the greatest achievement of dancing. The number of insecure Americans reached a historic minimum of seven two percent in the second quarter of two thousand twenty- three, while the number of people enrolled in an Obamacker plan for two thousand twenty- four increased to twenty- one three

14:41 million. The economy added 14 8 million jobs during the first three years of its term, more than any President in U S history during the same period. We could say that, if we look at it from the cold point of view of the data, he has been a successful President. However, what concerns many and has been the subject of criticism by their adversaries is their age and mental health, and recent images of President Biyder have been seen, evidently disoriented in several public appearances in which he seems confused or lost. In February of this year, a report by Special Prosecutor Robert Hard was published on the handling of classified documents by President Joe Biden, who concluded that he presented himself as an old man with a bad memory, who was unable to remember key dates, even when he served as Vice President or the year his son died. Prime Minister Hard' s report described the memory of the eighty- one- year- old President as blurred, flawed, poor and with significant limitations. This has also become a public concern. In March, the ap press agency conducted a poll that showed that about six out of ten sixty- three percent say they don' t have much confidence in Byden' s mental ability to be effectively serving as President. Trump, though, is not well off either. In that same survey. A similar proportion, though slightly smaller,

16:11 fifty- seven percent say Trump lacks the memory and acuity for the job. In another more recent poll conducted by CBS, it was concluded that 23 percent of respondents believe that neither Byden nor Trump have the mental or cognitive health to serve as presidents. Many doubts have been raised on this issue, and one of them is why no other candidacies are being promoted in the Democratic Coast Party Panagopolus, head of the Department of Political Science at North Eastern University. It' s too risky for a game. Challenging its own leader has the potential to cause much harm, especially when it comes to a challenge within the party to a President- in- Office who, impressively, should carry the flag of that party. Although after his questionable performance in last Thursday' s debate, many people within the Democratic Party itself raised alarms and began to question whether he should remain their party' s candidate. Some even went so far as to say whether it would be desirable for him to remain In these conditions, the President of the Republic can become a problem if he becomes President at the age of eighty- one. This he told me in former Colombian ambassador to the United States, Gabriel Silva, of being elected to President Baden,

17:41 would be the oldest, most mature president in the history of the United States. Without a doubt, that is a challenge because, independently of their current condition, that my opinion, is much better than what opponents say, because in any case, at eighty- one long years, there are cognitive losses that most of them can compensate for with experience and knowledge. But in any case, doubt about who will be ruling will surround that Government if President Biding is elected and conspiracies will begin to try to influence those who believe he is ruling. It is not very different from what, unfortunately, we live with President Barco, who accused himself of ruling Germán Montoya, and the President was indeed totally of his mind and exercised his power as Head of States. There is no doubt in the case of President Biden, because the enemies will also be calibrating what advantages and disadvantages he has for them. The fact that this happens is that Russia, China and other countries that are in vilus of the United States. Anyway, it' s going to be a major weakness for the United States that circumstance, unfortunately, now good news for Joe Biden.

19:00 On the one hand, a study of the New York Times and a hundred collech Paul of almost two zero voters found that more voters were away from Trump than those who approached him. Byden is one point above trumpe in the weekly Morring Consul poll for the second week in a row, after having been behind Trump for a month. The latest poll shows that Trump' s advantage has diminished as a result of the verdict and the poll by Pib Es Marys, published the second week of June, showed that Trump has lost six points among independent voters, compared to the May poll of groups conducted before his conviction, while Byden has won eight points and now beat Trump by two points among the independents. And even though Byden and Trump lead all the polls by narrow margins.

19:51 There are other candidates in the partyer. That' s right. One hundred and seventy- four years ago, the United States did not elect a President who was neither a Democrat nor a Republican. In one thousand eight hundred and fifty, when Millard Filmore was elected as the 13th President of the United States, belonging to the Wick Party, which ceased to exist that year. For now there are at least three other independent candidates who hope to compete with the two major parties. One of the most vocal independent candidates is Robert Kennedy Jr, son of murdered politician Bobby Kennedy and nephew of former President John Fisherra Kennedy up to two thousand twenty- three belonged to the Democratic Party, but resigned to form his own WI People movement. Or we, the Kennedy people, are known for several positions that we might call scandalous or questionable, but which, paradoxically, have managed to catch the attention of the Republican Party trompist, for example, their belief that Putin acts in good faith in the conflict with Ukraine, that the BH crises were manufactured so that the céutic weapons sold more anti- AIDS drugs, that vaccines cause autism, that the five G technology is used for surveillance, or that the radio frequency signals of wi FI can cause cancer, that there are chemicals in the water that turn children into trans gender and more recently claimed that Chinese and Jews were immune to covid nineteen, and although it is difficult to beat the two presidential candidates. Gennedy has gained popularity, especially among Latino voters. I' m Robert of Cardy Jr.

21:25 And they present everything as an independent candidate for the presidency of the United States. In the United States of my youth, our country, to have thus concluded its promise to be an Ehemplar Boton nation has it. An electoral defense organization recently published the results of a poll of two zero Latino voters in the states of Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Texas, and Pensylvania, highlighting that Kennedy is getting better results two among Latinos and other voters than any other third party candidate. In decades and several surveys conducted in April and May by the New York Times, Cinna College and Filadelphia. In Qir they revealed that Kennedy has 14 percent support among Latino voters in the most contested states.

22:18 On the other hand, there is progressive academic Colonel West, a former professor of philosophy at Harvard, one of the leading and leading socialist activists in the United States. Together with Bernis Sanders, he supported Obama in his first administration, but quickly became a critic of various measures by the former President, such as his support for Wall Street or the use of drones in the war. Although his candidacy was believed to be with the Green Party, in January he announced the formation of the Justice forrol party or Justice for all. And finally there is also doctor Gillstein, a veteran American leftist politician who announced her candidacy for the Green Party. Stein is a recognized environmentalist and has already been a candidate in two thousand two and two thousand sixteen, always with the same party.

23:03 She was a candidate for Massachusetts State Governorship in two thousand two and two thousand ten and until recently she was also a presidential campaign director for Cornel West. The Democrats blame Hillary Clinton for not winning the presidential election of two thousand and sixteen because the one- and- a- half million votes that achieved a zero coma six percent of the votes, although insufficient to govern, were decisive in the balance tilt in favor of Trump. I looked for former congressman Juan Manuel Galán to ask him the alternative candidates will have the possibility of governing again in the United States. Let' s hear what he told me. In the United States, alternative candidates face great challenges because of the bipartisan system that favors the Republican and Democratic parties. A peculiar electoral system and campaign financing laws make it difficult for independent candidates or third parties to reach the presidency.

24:03 However, history shows that it is not impossible. In Colombia, for example, the two- party system broke down in a thousand nine hundred and ninety, when the new liberalism emerged as an important force and forced the Liberal Party to adopt its candidate. This change was catalysed by unprecedented violence in the 1980s and the assassinations that led to the promulgation of the Constitution of ninety- one In the United States, the growing political polarization is a serious problem, which is dividing the country and paralyzing it, a polarization that could paradoxically be the catalyst necessary for an alternative candidate to emerge. The political, social, economic and migration crisis can generate great disillusionment with traditional parties and anti- democratic options.

24:52 In any case, the candidate would have to be charismatic, disciplined and, above all, provide a viable solution to the problems of society, in particular migration. Trump' s political figure as President and candidate has influenced the world and especially in Latin America, to guide candidacies and right- wing figures such as Miley in Argentina, Bolsonaro, Brazil and Colombia, several figures such as María Fernanda Cabala or Paloma Valencia. In the case of Baiden, his figure has empowered more politicians from centres. A new Trump triumph could translate into a new geopolitical configuration in which Colombia, under President Petro' s government, takes a radical position and aligns itself with Russia and China. Colombia has sought to maintain a respectful diplomatic relationship with the two parties and the United States is one of the country' s main allies. So far, the relationship between President Biden and President Petro has been cordial and have met, but in the face of a hypothetical victory of Donald Trump, a man with coughing thoughts and political beliefs different from that of President Petru I cannot help but wonder if the diplomatic relationship would change. As I don' t know what to think of asking political journalist Mara Alejandra Villamizar what we could expect from diplomatic relations between Colombia and the United States if Donel Trump won the presidency. This answered me between the two thousand and seventeen of the two thousand and twenty- one. Donald

26:22 Trump broke the outlines of U S politics and with his arrival he realized that fact, which was the transfer of the fiction of the realities to a reality that previously seemed unthinkable. His arrival coincided at that time with the presidency of Ivan Duque, who also seemed unthinkable. But this coincidence gave Colombia a new alignment. We were in the process of building peace and when Donald Trump arrived, there came the times of the winds of hostility, not only with those peace- building exercises, but, for example, with Venezuela and the regime of ripeness to Colombia, due to social needs and geographical location, the problem of migration, the drug problem, which remains our great heel of aquiles, our war, because it will certainly return that discourse of supporting more the fight against security terrorists And maybe Donald Trump wants Colombia to be ally, which has never ceased to be, but a slightly more watered ally surely will not be anything different from what has happened with Joe Biden. But Colombia is in the petro era, and that is certainly going to mean adjusting the belts will harden the speech, return those Republican referents, and then we will talk again about the need to save the homeland that for many today is the common place to do politics. We will have common enemies and, therefore, Colombia will again be in a hinged situation, neither here nor there. Even if there'

27:53 s a sense of American addictive. What happens in November' s presidential dedictions in the United States will undoubtedly affect Colombia and the world' s influence in much of the world' s wars and conflicts, in the economy, in its trade battle with China, in relations with countries like Venezuela and in the fight against drugs, shows that it remains a power. I am Roberto Pombo and this was chapter ninety- four of my questions we see in the next chapter from this moment on. This chapter of my questions is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was made possible by Kafan. Family compensation box.

28:33 Dirección Roberto Pombo, Producción General, juan Abel Gutiérrez, editorial advisor, Daniel San Pedro Espina, scripts Juannabel Gutiérrez and Johnny Rodríguez. Field production Marcela Salazar and Lucía Beltrán audio postproduction Carlos Bernard