¿Cuáles van a ser las guerras del futuro?

0:07 I' m Roberto Pombo. Welcome to my questions. An average rush program sponsored by Kafan, family compensation box. The history of mankind has been full of wars for several millennia, before Christ and to this day. We have not stopped fighting and it is hoped that this situation will not stop in the near future. It' s war. Apart from human nature, water will be the great motive for the coming wars. For this chapter we spoke with Vicente Durán Casas, rector of the Javeriana University of Cali, with journalist Jorge Espinosa, with Silvia Cogollos, director of the Department of History of the Javeriana University, with Diáfano Rodríguez, expert in cyber security, and with Carlos Correa, former Minister of the Environment. I am Roberto Pombo and this is chapter ninety- two of my questions. Welcome. Those who have or have had partners will have discussions more or less on the agenda. As the years go by, the situations change, the fradisgusto motifs vary a few more opposite pantufras.

1:19 A tube of cream from such uncovered can lead to a small discussion, but it is also normal that many times one of the two is molested. The passage of time will forget the reason and even if you do not believe it, this is so normal that it happens even to countries. An example of this is the three hundred and thirty- five- year war or the Sorling Islands war, the longest and most harmless confrontation ever recorded in history. It' s like that if you' re the one. In the year one thousand six hundred and fifty- one, England was involved in a civil war and the Netherlands took part in this confrontation, supporting the parliamentary side, which they saw with more possibility of the dispute. On the other hand, the realists old allies of the Dutch considered this decision a betrayal and decided to attack their live routes in the English Channel. But, as in any war, the realists were losing and their ships were relegated to a corner of the country, to the Sorling Islands located in the southern western part of England.

2:22 The Dutch saw in this the perfect opportunity to recover some of what they had lost in the attacks of the realists, who, taking advantage of the weakness of the realistic army sent a fleet of twelve warships to the Sorling Islands to demand repairs. The demand was so absurd that they did not receive any response. After being ignored, Dutch Admiral Martin Trump later declared war on the Sorling Islands on March 30, one hundred and fifty- one. A few months later, realistic fleets were forced to surrender. The Sorling Islands were once again under the command of the parliamentarians and the Dutch ships returned to their shores.

3:05 But let' s go up to a thousand nine hundred and eighty- five, when the British historian roy Duncan sent a letter to the Dutch Embassy to ask if they had evidence to endure a declaration of war and three hundred and thirty- five years ago and curiously, the Embassy found that the statement was indeed active, so the Ambassador visited the islands to officially sign a peace treaty. It resembles a war that the Boyacá State autonomous government had with Belgium. Despite being the longest war recorded in history, he left neither one dead nor one wounded. Like this, the history of humanity is full of disputes.

3:46 However, that positive record of casualties and injuries is unique. Sadly, they have been millennia of deaths in bulk at the hands of the same human. It is not known for certain what was the first human confrontation. According to a discovery by researchers at the Lever Hun Center Fort Human evolutionari Stadies of Cambridge University approximately ten zero years ago, in East Africa, a fertile and resource - rich lagoon called Nataruk, witnessed the oldest known violent conflict of humanity, in which more than two dozen prehistoric men, women and children died brutally.

4:26 According to Dr Martha Mirason, leader of the study, the Nataruk massacre could have resulted from an attempt to seize land resources and women children food stored in pots that had a similar value to the later agricultural societies that depended on food production, among which violent attacks on settlements became imparting daily life and is that, according to the accounts of the British Encyclopedia, from the year 1, 300 BC to the first decade of the two thousand have been recorded one hundred and thirty wars. To review a history book is basically to review the history of the wars of humanity, from wars for resources, for territories, religion or for political positions. It' s rare to find a time of passage.

5:16 Since I am not a historian, I looked for Silvia Cogollos and director of the History Department of Javeriana University to tell me what is the most violent and peaceful time known to the history of humanity. This he told me. The history of humanity, unfortunately, has been characterized by the exercise of violence as a result of conflicts in which different factors assuming prominence trigger confrontations in which the struggle for power, the selfish defense of interests or the radicalization of ideologies have affected thousands of people who are precisely the object of that violence. Now, think about identifying the most violent time in history very difficult, as I told them the motivations and, of course, the effects. I could venture and mention the wars of the 20th century for the cruel and devastating ones that were paste only by approaching World War I and World War II, which cost the lives of more than seventy million people. And what about the violence we see every day, in which easily in one day, a bombing can kill hundreds of people. Paradoxically, we are in a world of great technological advances.

6:28 However, many of these are not for the benefit of humanity, but for its destruction. However, I have to say that there are very few, if not non- existent, peaceful times in the history of mankind. Moreover, because these times also depend on contexts, spaces and human groups. Perhaps the happiest quote- time of the human being was when, thousands of years ago, he organized himself into small groups with a single concern to collect food and have a shelter. For me, I believe that from the end of World War II to these days, one of the least violent times can be called, not to tell you the quietest in the history of humanity.

7:13 There are many definitions of what war is, especially since several branches of knowledge have devoted themselves to studying this phenomenon. So, for example, sociologists usually apply the term to conflicts only if they start and lead according to socially recognized forms. The armies speak of war only if there is parity among the contenders. Or in our case, in which for many years the existence of an armed conflict was denied and there was talk of the fight against insurgents. The case is that in one thousand eight hundred and sixty- four, under the first Geneva Convention, international humanitarian law was created which basically contains rules for a war armed conflict war or whatever it might call it, such as declaring the civilian population a protected population, medical services or respecting the lives of combatants who surrender or are injured. Although the news of civilians killed shows us that many of these rules seem more like a salute to the flag. The online rule of law in armed conflicts of the University of Geneva classifies all situations of armed violence that amount to an armed conflict according to international humanitarian law. This portal, today monitors more than one hundred and ten armed conflicts and provides information on the parties involved, the latest developments and applicable international law. The International Crisis Group is an independent organization working to prevent wars and design policies that build a more peaceful world. On the first day of this year they published on the

8:46 ten conflicts to be targeted at this two thousand twenty- four, and one of the highlights is that throughout the world, diplomatic efforts to end the fighting are failing, that more and more videos are pursuing their aims militarily and that many of these leaders believe they can get away with it. Apparently, that ' s happening. The analysis of this group also notes that at the end of the twentieth century it left several peace agreements in several countries that ended their conflicts in places such as Cambodia, such as Bosnia, Mozambique, Liberia, but a number of those agreements to which they refer were imperfect and often involved unpleasant concessions. According to the report I open Comillas, a period marked by the genocide in Rwanda and the bloodshed in the Balkans can hardly be idealized as a golden era. The establishment of the pass even so. The series of agreements seemed to indicate a future in which a calmer post- Cold War policy would provide space for Comillas closed diplomacy. However, this diplomacy has failed in recent years and, as they point out in their analysis, the problem is global politics and, as the title of that text indicates, recommends looking at ten conflicts. The current situation in Gaza, the comprehensive Middle East war between Iran and Iraq, Syria Yemen, and the involvement of U S troops, the Sudan war between known military miniscias and the rapid support forces and rebel forces

10:18 of that country, the Russian invasion Ukraine, which already fits more than two years and involves the U S and Lautan, although which war does not. The civil war that has been raging in Burma since two thousand and twenty- one, after a coup d'état that left the army in power and dozens of technical armed groups that want to overthrow them. The conflict in Ethiopia between the liberation front of the Itigrai people and the Government of that country also says that the magnifying glass must be put on the difficult situation that Haiti is experiencing, following the assassination of President Jouvenel Mois and armed groups that terrorize the country, or like the Sael countries, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has already been going on for more than three decades and, finally, the growing tension between China and the United States. According to the ono, globally, the absolute number of war deaths has been decreasing since one thousand nine hundred and forty- six. However, in two thousand sixteen more countries they experienced violent conflicts than at any other time. In almost thirty years. At the same time, conflicts are becoming more fragmented. There have already been several times in the last decade when the missile alarms that North Korea throws into the sea of Japan are set on fire. In two thousand twenty- two, that country declared itself a state with nuclear weapons. There was attention between Russia and Lautan. There' s the trigger. The threat of the famous and

11:50 dreaded Third World War has been crouched since the very moment the Second was over. But truly how close we are to a new World Uerra. I asked journalist Jorge Espinoza and this was his answer. Of course, Roberto, that is a very difficult question to answer and it seems to me that the best way to approach it is through history. I recently read in Gardiano' s British newspaper an op- ed by the diplomatic editor of that newspaper called Patrick Quinture. The Lord says and begins with this quotation the only clue to what man can do is what he has done. He is the historian of the University of Oxford AIRG Collingwood and the article entitled. Now we are in nineteen hundred and thirty- eight, Putin' s war in Ukraine and the lessons of history. What he argues is that the Prime Minister of Estonia, Mrs Calas, argues that this is now a time of nineteen hundred and thirty- eight, a time when a wider war is imminent, but the West has not yet united the points. The favorite historian of the Prime Minister of Klas Steam Skneyder reimagines a thousand nine hundred these thirty- eight as a year in which Czechoslovakia, as Ukraine is doing now, chooses to fight when threatened by a larger neighbor, says he chooses to resist. In that world where Czechoslovakia resists, there is no second war. I mean, there' s a conflict, but not a world war. If the Czechs resisted and the French, British and Americans began to help, it might not have happened. And

13:22 in the end, what you wonder is what happens if we leave Ukraine alone. Or Ukraine surrenders, so I guess the answer to the question is that maybe we are closer to what we imagine. Motives for wars. There has been no lack of dispute over a territory of political differences, religions, dominion in regions or resources are the most frequent for Christopher Bladman, economist, political scientist and professor of several universities. Five other reasons exist for wars to take place. The first is the lack of responsibility, that is, when a society or its leaders are not held accountable, the likelihood of conflict increases ideologies and extremism, uncertainty about the future, prejudices or biases and the lack of trust between the parties in wat de feuture coffer a version of two thousand twenty - three of the magazine of the surveying firm IPSUS. There are quite interesting data to take into account on this subject. The first point they raise is that the global uncertainty between the countries of G20 and the scarcity of resources will shape economic stability, while human rights will be the catalyst for internal discontent will affect the way conflict, defence and security will be seen in the future.

14:39 Another finding that speaks of the current situation in the world is that of the fears we feel and is that a survey of Egypts is joined. Mainly nuclear attacks and cyber hacks are the two threats that cause the most fear. Three out of four people on average globally feel a high level of concern about a tame that is nuclear or biological. Seventy- seven percent of the polled believe that cyber conflicts will increase the likelihood of conflicts in the real world, and fifty- three percent believe that climate change and resource scarcity will be the main drivers of future conflicts. That fear expressed by several in a computer attack is more real and more dangerous than we believe in a world that is almost entirely governed by cloud information and that its main systems as public services are increasingly dependent on technology. An attack on their systems would be disastrous. Technology has served humanity, especially war, but it is a weapon of two ends. Technological advances are contributing to the change in the nature of conflicts. There are concerns about the potential of artificial intelligence and machine learning to improve hybernetic, physical and biological attacks. According to the U S Department of Intelligence. Over the next two decades, military conflicts are likely to be driven by the same factors that have historically led to wars, ranging from resource protection, economic disparities and ideological

16:11 differences to the pursuit of power and influence. What is, however, going to change is the way wars are fought, which is going to change as new technologies, applications and doctrines emerge and as other conflict factors have access to those capabilities. That is to remember that the war has been the engine of most of the technological advances we know, from canned food, ovens, microwaves, the Gibbs, virtual reality to satellite navigation maps on the Internet. The on has not warned that emerging technologies are reducing barriers to acquiring biological weapons as toxic substances or diseases used to harm or kill human beings by gaining SS crops.

17:00 The concerns are that advances in artificial intelligence and printing three d can facilitate biological attacks by automating the development and production of weapons and the systems that develop them. The development of so- called lethal autonomous weapons, which could identify from attacking a specific target without human guidance, because responsibility for the life of death from human moral systems is transferred to complex data systems lacking ethical compass. The ono document also expresses enormous concern about a more prevalent threat at present and attacks. According to IBM' s ex- FORCE incident response and intelligence services, the number of cyberattacks doubled in the first half of two thousand nineteen compared to the second half of two thousand eighteen, most of them aimed at manufacturers, oil and gas companies and educational institutes. The text of me knows what to brocomillas. The owners of critical infrastructure are especially at risk, as malicious actors seek to attack control towers of airports, plants, nuclear plants, hospitals and dams. Over the past year, two thousand and twenty have identified more than a hundred Hibernetical incidents with the potential to undermine international peace and security.

18:22 Such attacks would cause substantial damage and close quotes. Reading this, I can ' t stop thinking about Colombia, because I don' t know how protected our systems are. That' s why I looked for Diafano Rodríguez, an expert in cyber security, to share my concern with him is strong the digital security of the Colombian state. This he told me about national digital security policy. Colombia is a pioneer always characterized by having legislative regulatory frameworks in some way, from my point of view, in the perfect and well- crafted role. However, if you look at IBM' s recent studies, it published at least at two thousand twenty- two. Colombia is the second most cyber - attacked country in the region. In that year no more than twenty billion attempts of hybernetic attacks were presented in the country. So that makes another structural part of legislation, because we are right, but we still need to interact with it. This is why, on the basis of this issue, the creation of the National Digital Security Agency is being discussed through the Senate of the Republic. Josh Basby is a professor of public affairs at the University of Texas.

19:37 He has studied issues such as climate change and foreign policy. It was an interview Basbe makes a few comments that would be worth taking into account, as we are increasingly competing for raw materials for the transition to clean energies as critical minerals such as cobalt and lithium. For Professor Basbie, you bought them related to these responses could intensify conflicts. Although we are not fully aware of it. We could also be too focused on whether climate change itself will become, along with other factors, a driving force for conflict. In a thousand nine hundred and ninety- five, the former Vice President of the World Bank, Dr.“ Ismail be Galdin,” he told Gold Comillas. If the wars of this century celebrated for oil, the wars of the next century will be celebrated for water. Unless it changes our way of managing this precious and vital resource. I close Comillas, conflicts over water already exist and tend to get worse. An analysis by the Pacific Institute in two thousand twenty- two identified hundreds of new cases of water violence. According to its assessment, the Institute has identified 300 new cases of freshwater violence. The new update adds more than one thousand three hundred entries and since the year two thousand the number of events has grown dramatically. One of the key findings is that water is increasingly at the centre of conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East. In the

21:14 West Bank. Incidents involving the destruction of orchards, irrigation systems and water tanks have occurred for years, but have increased significantly over the past two years. In other parts of the Middle East. There have been deadly fights over the control of water sources, such as in Yement O, water infrastructure bombings in Syria and clashes during protests over the lack of water in Iraq. Water- related violence broke out this year in other areas of the world. The database now includes more than one thousand six hundred and thirty conflicts. Only between two thousand twenty- two and the first half of two thousand twenty- three, this map found three hundred and forty- four cases of water- related conflicts.

21:56 Natural resources will be the motives for the coming wars. This was told to me by the former Minister of the Environment, Carlos Correo. I do believe that most of the conflicts we are going to have in the future are definitely about water and natural resources. Today we are seeing that the lack of water, the desertification of the soil, is generating internal migrations in countries and also at the regional level and, of course, also the natural resources, the mining resources, the resources needed for the energy transition. Let' s look at 80 percent of cobalt reserves in the Congo today. Today Chile, Bolivia, Peru with copper lithium reserves, also China with important reserves of natural resources, and also the countries that need these materials for transition or for their permanent economic activity, for their growth. So these resources will definitely help to accelerate conflicts between regions and also within different countries, but then it is war, conflict and violence that is inherent in humanity. This question arose since the organization of societies became more complex and has been the subject of debate among academics who are divided into two fields and that the anthropologist kit Oterbin called hawks and pigeons. If it turns out to be true that war expresses that in the

23:30 species, then we should expect to find evidence of war in small- scale societies throughout the prehistoric record. This is where the group of archons, such as archaeologists Steven de Blank and Katherine Register, come in, who claim that when there is a good archaeological image of any society on earth, there is almost always also evidence of war. With this argument, evolutionary psychologists argue that war has served as a natural selection mechanism in which the most acts prevail to acquire both partners and resources. And the other side is in the pigeon group who have the evidence in their favor. Generally speaking, early findings provide little or no evidence to suggest that war was a fact of life. Warlike conditions and cultures only became common in the last ten zero years and in most places much more recently than that. The high level of violence often reported in history, ethnography or later archaeology contradicts the oldest archaeological finds in the world. Rather than being an innate trait, war seems to be related to specific social, political and economic factors in the evolution of human societies. But let' s stop looking at the past, a human war or a question can ever be waged if it is doomed to irrelevance by an innate contradiction of the terms.

25:00 These are two of the fundamental humane questions of Yale University' s Professor of Laws and History. Sambel Moin is a polemic against the U S- led march into an age of endless war. Not to be the long story, these questions lead Moin to a rather ironic conclusion, which is that, in part, efforts to make war more cynical and less cruel have made war more common and lasting. Then the human will be able to evolve to the point where there are no wars. I looked for Vicente Durán, Rector of Javeriana University in Cali, to give me his point of view, and this he told me. Your question makes me think of the text of Immanuel Canta, the German philosopher who is entitled Life Peace, which is from the year one thousand seven hundred and ninety- five. There Kant establishes a series of very valid reflections still in today' s world, aimed at thinking about the conditions for peace. Kant believes that there are two types of conditions for lasting perpetual peace. Some are preliminary and others are definitive. And that seems to me to be an interesting point of view. There are preliminary preconditions for any decision on peace, and it is that those in conflict must accept that there should be no wars and that wars cannot be carried out in any way, even by those at war. Those principles should be accepted and other preliminary principles should

26:36 also be accepted, such as that a State should not in principle intervene in another State. Those preliminary conditions for peace are what I believe we must work to give the war a sense of humanization that I believe has gained a little. But there' s still a long way to go. States, individuals, political parties, international organizations and the United Nations need to agree on any possibility of peace in those preliminary articles. And it is that, as Kant says, we would all have to accept that the ideal is that there are no wars, that armies should someday disappear from the face of the earth.

27:18 That, as a preliminary condition, facilitates dialogue among nations in armed conflict. I don' t know if violence is innate in humans. It' s been a thousand years and we' ve evolved to unthoughtful points. As a species, we have questioned and abolished various practices that cause pain and suffering, not only to other humans, but to other species. Yes, we have also caused new pain and suffering, but not all progress is linear. I am optimistic, irremediable, and I think it will come to a point where weapons are unnecessary, or at least I want to think that if they continue to exist, future wars will be more similar to those of the Netherlands against the Sorling Islands than a world war. I am Roberto Pombo and this was chapter ninety- two of my questions. I' ll see you in a next chapter from now on. This chapter of my questions is available on all podcast platforms. This episode was made possible by Kafan. Family compensation box.

28:26 Direction Roberto Pombo, Production General, Juan Abel Gutiérrez, editorial advisor, Daniel San Pedrospina, Screenplay Juan Abel Gutiérrez and Johnny Rodríguez. Field production Marcela Salazar and Lucía Beltrán. Postproduction of audio Carlos Bernard