¿Cuáles van a ser las guerras del futuro?

WEBVTT

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I' m Roberto Pombo. Welcome
to my questions. An average rush program

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sponsored by Kafan, family compensation box. The history of mankind has been full

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of wars for several millennia, before
Christ and to this day. We have

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not stopped fighting and it is hoped
that this situation will not stop in the

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near future. It' s war. Apart from human nature, water will

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be the great motive for the coming
wars. For this chapter we spoke with

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Vicente Durán Casas, rector of the
Javeriana University of Cali, with journalist Jorge

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Espinosa, with Silvia Cogollos, director
of the Department of History of the Javeriana

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University, with Diáfano Rodríguez, expert
in cyber security, and with Carlos Correa,

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former Minister of the Environment. I
am Roberto Pombo and this is chapter

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ninety- two of my questions.
Welcome. Those who have or have had

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partners will have discussions more or less
on the agenda. As the years go

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by, the situations change, the
fradisgusto motifs vary a few more opposite pantufras.

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A tube of cream from such uncovered
can lead to a small discussion,

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but it is also normal that many
times one of the two is molested.

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The passage of time will forget the
reason and even if you do not believe

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it, this is so normal that
it happens even to countries. An example

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of this is the three hundred and
thirty- five- year war or the

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Sorling Islands war, the longest and
most harmless confrontation ever recorded in history.

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It' s like that if you' re the one. In the year

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one thousand six hundred and fifty-
one, England was involved in a civil

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war and the Netherlands took part in
this confrontation, supporting the parliamentary side,

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which they saw with more possibility of
the dispute. On the other hand,

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the realists old allies of the Dutch
considered this decision a betrayal and decided to

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attack their live routes in the English
Channel. But, as in any war,

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the realists were losing and their ships
were relegated to a corner of the

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country, to the Sorling Islands located
in the southern western part of England.

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The Dutch saw in this the perfect
opportunity to recover some of what they had

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lost in the attacks of the realists, who, taking advantage of the weakness

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of the realistic army sent a fleet
of twelve warships to the Sorling Islands to

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demand repairs. The demand was so
absurd that they did not receive any response.

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After being ignored, Dutch Admiral Martin
Trump later declared war on the Sorling

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Islands on March 30, one hundred
and fifty- one. A few months

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later, realistic fleets were forced to
surrender. The Sorling Islands were once again

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under the command of the parliamentarians and
the Dutch ships returned to their shores.

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But let' s go up to
a thousand nine hundred and eighty- five,

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when the British historian roy Duncan sent
a letter to the Dutch Embassy to

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ask if they had evidence to endure
a declaration of war and three hundred and

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thirty- five years ago and curiously, the Embassy found that the statement was

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indeed active, so the Ambassador visited
the islands to officially sign a peace treaty.

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It resembles a war that the Boyacá
State autonomous government had with Belgium.

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Despite being the longest war recorded in
history, he left neither one dead nor

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one wounded. Like this, the
history of humanity is full of disputes.

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However, that positive record of casualties
and injuries is unique. Sadly, they

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have been millennia of deaths in bulk
at the hands of the same human.

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It is not known for certain what
was the first human confrontation. According to

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a discovery by researchers at the Lever
Hun Center Fort Human evolutionari Stadies of Cambridge

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University approximately ten zero years ago,
in East Africa, a fertile and resource

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- rich lagoon called Nataruk, witnessed
the oldest known violent conflict of humanity,

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in which more than two dozen prehistoric
men, women and children died brutally.

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According to Dr Martha Mirason, leader
of the study, the Nataruk massacre could

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have resulted from an attempt to seize
land resources and women children food stored in

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pots that had a similar value to
the later agricultural societies that depended on food

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production, among which violent attacks on
settlements became imparting daily life and is that,

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according to the accounts of the British
Encyclopedia, from the year 1,

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300 BC to the first decade of
the two thousand have been recorded one hundred

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and thirty wars. To review a
history book is basically to review the history

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of the wars of humanity, from
wars for resources, for territories, religion

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or for political positions. It'
s rare to find a time of passage.

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Since I am not a historian,
I looked for Silvia Cogollos and director

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of the History Department of Javeriana University
to tell me what is the most violent

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and peaceful time known to the history
of humanity. This he told me.

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The history of humanity, unfortunately,
has been characterized by the exercise of violence

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as a result of conflicts in which
different factors assuming prominence trigger confrontations in which

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the struggle for power, the selfish
defense of interests or the radicalization of ideologies

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have affected thousands of people who are
precisely the object of that violence. Now,

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think about identifying the most violent time
in history very difficult, as I

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told them the motivations and, of
course, the effects. I could venture

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and mention the wars of the 20th
century for the cruel and devastating ones that

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were paste only by approaching World War
I and World War II, which cost

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the lives of more than seventy million
people. And what about the violence we

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see every day, in which easily
in one day, a bombing can kill

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hundreds of people. Paradoxically, we
are in a world of great technological advances.

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However, many of these are not
for the benefit of humanity, but

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for its destruction. However, I
have to say that there are very few,

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if not non- existent, peaceful
times in the history of mankind.

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Moreover, because these times also depend
on contexts, spaces and human groups.

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Perhaps the happiest quote- time of
the human being was when, thousands of

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years ago, he organized himself into
small groups with a single concern to collect

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food and have a shelter. For
me, I believe that from the end

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of World War II to these days, one of the least violent times can

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be called, not to tell you
the quietest in the history of humanity.

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There are many definitions of what war
is, especially since several branches of knowledge

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have devoted themselves to studying this phenomenon. So, for example, sociologists usually

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apply the term to conflicts only if
they start and lead according to socially recognized

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forms. The armies speak of war
only if there is parity among the contenders.

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Or in our case, in which
for many years the existence of an

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armed conflict was denied and there was
talk of the fight against insurgents. The

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case is that in one thousand eight
hundred and sixty- four, under the

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first Geneva Convention, international humanitarian law
was created which basically contains rules for a

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war armed conflict war or whatever it
might call it, such as declaring the

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civilian population a protected population, medical
services or respecting the lives of combatants who

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surrender or are injured. Although the
news of civilians killed shows us that many

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of these rules seem more like a
salute to the flag. The online rule

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of law in armed conflicts of the
University of Geneva classifies all situations of armed

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violence that amount to an armed conflict
according to international humanitarian law. This portal,

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today monitors more than one hundred and
ten armed conflicts and provides information on

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the parties involved, the latest developments
and applicable international law. The International Crisis

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Group is an independent organization working to
prevent wars and design policies that build a

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more peaceful world. On the first
day of this year they published on the

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ten conflicts to be targeted at this
two thousand twenty- four, and one

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of the highlights is that throughout the
world, diplomatic efforts to end the fighting

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are failing, that more and more
videos are pursuing their aims militarily and that

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many of these leaders believe they can
get away with it. Apparently, that

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' s happening. The analysis of
this group also notes that at the end

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of the twentieth century it left several
peace agreements in several countries that ended their

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conflicts in places such as Cambodia,
such as Bosnia, Mozambique, Liberia,

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but a number of those agreements to
which they refer were imperfect and often involved

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unpleasant concessions. According to the report
I open Comillas, a period marked by

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the genocide in Rwanda and the bloodshed
in the Balkans can hardly be idealized as

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a golden era. The establishment of
the pass even so. The series of

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agreements seemed to indicate a future in
which a calmer post- Cold War policy

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would provide space for Comillas closed diplomacy. However, this diplomacy has failed in

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recent years and, as they point
out in their analysis, the problem is

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global politics and, as the title
of that text indicates, recommends looking at

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ten conflicts. The current situation in
Gaza, the comprehensive Middle East war between

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Iran and Iraq, Syria Yemen,
and the involvement of U S troops,

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the Sudan war between known military miniscias
and the rapid support forces and rebel forces

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of that country, the Russian invasion
Ukraine, which already fits more than two

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years and involves the U S and
Lautan, although which war does not.

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The civil war that has been raging
in Burma since two thousand and twenty-

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one, after a coup d'état that left the army in power and

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dozens of technical armed groups that want
to overthrow them. The conflict in Ethiopia

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between the liberation front of the Itigrai
people and the Government of that country also

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says that the magnifying glass must be
put on the difficult situation that Haiti is

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experiencing, following the assassination of President
Jouvenel Mois and armed groups that terrorize the

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country, or like the Sael countries, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan,

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which has already been going on for
more than three decades and, finally,

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the growing tension between China and the
United States. According to the ono,

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globally, the absolute number of war
deaths has been decreasing since one thousand nine

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hundred and forty- six. However, in two thousand sixteen more countries they

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experienced violent conflicts than at any other
time. In almost thirty years. At

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the same time, conflicts are becoming
more fragmented. There have already been several

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times in the last decade when the
missile alarms that North Korea throws into the

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sea of Japan are set on fire. In two thousand twenty- two,

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that country declared itself a state with
nuclear weapons. There was attention between Russia

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and Lautan. There' s the
trigger. The threat of the famous and

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dreaded Third World War has been crouched
since the very moment the Second was over.

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But truly how close we are to
a new World Uerra. I asked

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journalist Jorge Espinoza and this was his
answer. Of course, Roberto, that

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is a very difficult question to answer
and it seems to me that the best

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way to approach it is through history. I recently read in Gardiano' s

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British newspaper an op- ed by
the diplomatic editor of that newspaper called Patrick

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Quinture. The Lord says and begins
with this quotation the only clue to what

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man can do is what he has
done. He is the historian of the

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University of Oxford AIRG Collingwood and the
article entitled. Now we are in nineteen

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hundred and thirty- eight, Putin' s war in Ukraine and the lessons

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of history. What he argues is
that the Prime Minister of Estonia, Mrs

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Calas, argues that this is now
a time of nineteen hundred and thirty-

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eight, a time when a wider
war is imminent, but the West has

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not yet united the points. The
favorite historian of the Prime Minister of Klas

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Steam Skneyder reimagines a thousand nine hundred
these thirty- eight as a year in

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which Czechoslovakia, as Ukraine is doing
now, chooses to fight when threatened by

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a larger neighbor, says he chooses
to resist. In that world where Czechoslovakia

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resists, there is no second war. I mean, there' s a

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conflict, but not a world war. If the Czechs resisted and the French,

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British and Americans began to help,
it might not have happened. And

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in the end, what you wonder
is what happens if we leave Ukraine alone.

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Or Ukraine surrenders, so I guess
the answer to the question is that

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maybe we are closer to what we
imagine. Motives for wars. There has

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been no lack of dispute over a
territory of political differences, religions, dominion

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in regions or resources are the most
frequent for Christopher Bladman, economist, political

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scientist and professor of several universities.
Five other reasons exist for wars to take

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place. The first is the lack
of responsibility, that is, when a

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society or its leaders are not held
accountable, the likelihood of conflict increases ideologies

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and extremism, uncertainty about the future, prejudices or biases and the lack of

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trust between the parties in wat de
feuture coffer a version of two thousand twenty

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- three of the magazine of the
surveying firm IPSUS. There are quite interesting

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data to take into account on this
subject. The first point they raise is

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that the global uncertainty between the countries
of G20 and the scarcity of resources will

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shape economic stability, while human rights
will be the catalyst for internal discontent will

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affect the way conflict, defence and
security will be seen in the future.

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Another finding that speaks of the current
situation in the world is that of the

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fears we feel and is that a
survey of Egypts is joined. Mainly nuclear

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attacks and cyber hacks are the two
threats that cause the most fear. Three

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out of four people on average globally
feel a high level of concern about a

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tame that is nuclear or biological.
Seventy- seven percent of the polled believe

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that cyber conflicts will increase the likelihood
of conflicts in the real world, and

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fifty- three percent believe that climate
change and resource scarcity will be the main

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drivers of future conflicts. That fear
expressed by several in a computer attack is

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more real and more dangerous than we
believe in a world that is almost entirely

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governed by cloud information and that its
main systems as public services are increasingly dependent

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on technology. An attack on their
systems would be disastrous. Technology has served

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humanity, especially war, but it
is a weapon of two ends. Technological

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advances are contributing to the change in
the nature of conflicts. There are concerns

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about the potential of artificial intelligence and
machine learning to improve hybernetic, physical and

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biological attacks. According to the U
S Department of Intelligence. Over the next

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two decades, military conflicts are likely
to be driven by the same factors that

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have historically led to wars, ranging
from resource protection, economic disparities and ideological

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differences to the pursuit of power and
influence. What is, however, going

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to change is the way wars are
fought, which is going to change as

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new technologies, applications and doctrines emerge
and as other conflict factors have access to

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those capabilities. That is to remember
that the war has been the engine of

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most of the technological advances we know, from canned food, ovens, microwaves,

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the Gibbs, virtual reality to satellite
navigation maps on the Internet. The

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on has not warned that emerging technologies
are reducing barriers to acquiring biological weapons as

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toxic substances or diseases used to harm
or kill human beings by gaining SS crops.

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The concerns are that advances in artificial
intelligence and printing three d can facilitate

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biological attacks by automating the development and
production of weapons and the systems that develop

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them. The development of so-
called lethal autonomous weapons, which could identify

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from attacking a specific target without human
guidance, because responsibility for the life of

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death from human moral systems is transferred
to complex data systems lacking ethical compass.

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The ono document also expresses enormous concern
about a more prevalent threat at present and

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attacks. According to IBM' s
ex- FORCE incident response and intelligence services,

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the number of cyberattacks doubled in the
first half of two thousand nineteen compared

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to the second half of two thousand
eighteen, most of them aimed at manufacturers,

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oil and gas companies and educational institutes. The text of me knows what

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to brocomillas. The owners of critical
infrastructure are especially at risk, as malicious

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actors seek to attack control towers of
airports, plants, nuclear plants, hospitals

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and dams. Over the past year, two thousand and twenty have identified more

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than a hundred Hibernetical incidents with the
potential to undermine international peace and security.

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Such attacks would cause substantial damage and
close quotes. Reading this, I can

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' t stop thinking about Colombia,
because I don' t know how protected

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our systems are. That' s
why I looked for Diafano Rodríguez, an

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expert in cyber security, to share
my concern with him is strong the digital

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security of the Colombian state. This
he told me about national digital security policy.

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Colombia is a pioneer always characterized by
having legislative regulatory frameworks in some way,

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from my point of view, in
the perfect and well- crafted role.

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However, if you look at IBM' s recent studies, it published

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at least at two thousand twenty-
two. Colombia is the second most cyber

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- attacked country in the region.
In that year no more than twenty billion

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attempts of hybernetic attacks were presented in
the country. So that makes another structural

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part of legislation, because we are
right, but we still need to interact

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with it. This is why,
on the basis of this issue, the

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creation of the National Digital Security Agency
is being discussed through the Senate of the

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Republic. Josh Basby is a professor
of public affairs at the University of Texas.

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He has studied issues such as climate
change and foreign policy. It was

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an interview Basbe makes a few comments
that would be worth taking into account,

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as we are increasingly competing for raw
materials for the transition to clean energies as

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critical minerals such as cobalt and lithium. For Professor Basbie, you bought them

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related to these responses could intensify conflicts. Although we are not fully aware of

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it. We could also be too
focused on whether climate change itself will become,

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along with other factors, a driving
force for conflict. In a thousand

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nine hundred and ninety- five,
the former Vice President of the World Bank,

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Dr.“ Ismail be Galdin,” he told Gold Comillas. If

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the wars of this century celebrated for
oil, the wars of the next century

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will be celebrated for water. Unless
it changes our way of managing this precious

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and vital resource. I close Comillas, conflicts over water already exist and tend

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to get worse. An analysis by
the Pacific Institute in two thousand twenty-

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two identified hundreds of new cases of
water violence. According to its assessment,

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the Institute has identified 300 new cases
of freshwater violence. The new update adds

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more than one thousand three hundred entries
and since the year two thousand the number

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of events has grown dramatically. One
of the key findings is that water is

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increasingly at the centre of conflicts from
Ukraine to the Middle East. In the

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West Bank. Incidents involving the destruction
of orchards, irrigation systems and water tanks

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have occurred for years, but have
increased significantly over the past two years.

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In other parts of the Middle East. There have been deadly fights over the

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control of water sources, such as
in Yement O, water infrastructure bombings in

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Syria and clashes during protests over the
lack of water in Iraq. Water-

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related violence broke out this year in
other areas of the world. The database

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now includes more than one thousand six
hundred and thirty conflicts. Only between two

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thousand twenty- two and the first
half of two thousand twenty- three,

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this map found three hundred and forty- four cases of water- related conflicts.

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Natural resources will be the motives for
the coming wars. This was told

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to me by the former Minister of
the Environment, Carlos Correo. I do

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believe that most of the conflicts we
are going to have in the future are

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definitely about water and natural resources.
Today we are seeing that the lack of

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water, the desertification of the soil, is generating internal migrations in countries and

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also at the regional level and,
of course, also the natural resources,

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the mining resources, the resources needed
for the energy transition. Let' s

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look at 80 percent of cobalt reserves
in the Congo today. Today Chile,

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Bolivia, Peru with copper lithium reserves, also China with important reserves of natural

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resources, and also the countries that
need these materials for transition or for their

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permanent economic activity, for their growth. So these resources will definitely help to

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accelerate conflicts between regions and also within
different countries, but then it is war,

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conflict and violence that is inherent in
humanity. This question arose since the

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organization of societies became more complex and
has been the subject of debate among academics

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who are divided into two fields and
that the anthropologist kit Oterbin called hawks and

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pigeons. If it turns out to
be true that war expresses that in the

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species, then we should expect to
find evidence of war in small- scale

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societies throughout the prehistoric record. This
is where the group of archons, such

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as archaeologists Steven de Blank and Katherine
Register, come in, who claim that

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when there is a good archaeological image
of any society on earth, there is

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almost always also evidence of war.
With this argument, evolutionary psychologists argue that

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war has served as a natural selection
mechanism in which the most acts prevail to

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acquire both partners and resources. And
the other side is in the pigeon group

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who have the evidence in their favor. Generally speaking, early findings provide little

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or no evidence to suggest that war
was a fact of life. Warlike conditions

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and cultures only became common in the
last ten zero years and in most places

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much more recently than that. The
high level of violence often reported in history,

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ethnography or later archaeology contradicts the oldest
archaeological finds in the world. Rather

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than being an innate trait, war
seems to be related to specific social,

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political and economic factors in the evolution
of human societies. But let' s

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stop looking at the past, a
human war or a question can ever be

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waged if it is doomed to irrelevance
by an innate contradiction of the terms.

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These are two of the fundamental humane
questions of Yale University' s Professor of

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Laws and History. Sambel Moin is
a polemic against the U S- led

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march into an age of endless war. Not to be the long story,

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these questions lead Moin to a rather
ironic conclusion, which is that, in

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part, efforts to make war more
cynical and less cruel have made war more

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common and lasting. Then the human
will be able to evolve to the point

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where there are no wars. I
looked for Vicente Durán, Rector of Javeriana

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University in Cali, to give me
his point of view, and this he

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told me. Your question makes me
think of the text of Immanuel Canta,

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the German philosopher who is entitled Life
Peace, which is from the year one

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thousand seven hundred and ninety- five. There Kant establishes a series of very

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valid reflections still in today' s
world, aimed at thinking about the conditions

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for peace. Kant believes that there
are two types of conditions for lasting perpetual

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peace. Some are preliminary and others
are definitive. And that seems to me

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to be an interesting point of view. There are preliminary preconditions for any decision

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on peace, and it is that
those in conflict must accept that there should

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be no wars and that wars cannot
be carried out in any way, even

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by those at war. Those principles
should be accepted and other preliminary principles should

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also be accepted, such as that
a State should not in principle intervene in

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another State. Those preliminary conditions for
peace are what I believe we must work

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to give the war a sense of
humanization that I believe has gained a little.

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But there' s still a long
way to go. States, individuals,

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political parties, international organizations and the
United Nations need to agree on any

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possibility of peace in those preliminary articles. And it is that, as Kant

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says, we would all have to
accept that the ideal is that there are

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no wars, that armies should someday
disappear from the face of the earth.

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That, as a preliminary condition,
facilitates dialogue among nations in armed conflict.

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I don' t know if violence
is innate in humans. It' s

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been a thousand years and we'
ve evolved to unthoughtful points. As a

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species, we have questioned and abolished
various practices that cause pain and suffering,

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not only to other humans, but
to other species. Yes, we have

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also caused new pain and suffering,
but not all progress is linear. I

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am optimistic, irremediable, and I
think it will come to a point where

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weapons are unnecessary, or at least
I want to think that if they continue

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to exist, future wars will be
more similar to those of the Netherlands against

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the Sorling Islands than a world war. I am Roberto Pombo and this was

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chapter ninety- two of my questions. I' ll see you in a

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next chapter from now on. This
chapter of my questions is available on all

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podcast platforms. This episode was made
possible by Kafan. Family compensation box.

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00:28:26.039 --> 00:28:30.720
Direction Roberto Pombo, Production General,
Juan Abel Gutiérrez, editorial advisor, Daniel

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00:28:30.799 --> 00:28:37.519
San Pedrospina, Screenplay Juan Abel Gutiérrez
and Johnny Rodríguez. Field production Marcela Salazar

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00:28:37.640 --> 00:28:41.759
and Lucía Beltrán. Postproduction of audio
Carlos Bernard